Kihei, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

214
FXHW60 PHFO 301323
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
323 AM HST Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist today, with light
east to southeast winds continuing. Showers will remain limited,
generally favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight
through the early morning hours and interior and leeward areas in
the afternoon where sea breezes form. Rain chances will steadily
increase through the week as southerly winds associated with a
cold front and upper disturbance draw moisture northward into the
islands. This front may reach the islands later in the week,
potentially leading to more widespread rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Model guidance remains in decent agreement into Monday,
indicating that deep-layer ridging will remain positioned over the
region, reinforcing the stable and suppressed environment. Expect
only light to moderate showers, primarily favoring windward and
southeast-facing slopes overnight and into the early morning
hours. During the afternoon, sea breezes may lead to some cloud
buildups over interior and leeward areas, but any associated
showers are expected to be brief and limited in coverage.

Guidance remains reasonably consistent through the first half of
the week, with deep low pressure west of the state gradually
shifting eastward. This will cause the low-level flow to veer out
of the south and increase to moderate levels beginning Monday.
This evolving pattern will result in lowering mid- to upper-level
heights and increased moisture being drawn northward into the
region, initially over the western end of the state. As a result,
rain chances will steadily rise through the first half of the
week.

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the latter half of the
week due to differences among the model and ensemble solutions.
However, there is general agreement that the aforementioned deep
moisture axis and front will reach the islands. Combined with
broad upper-level troughing and instability, this will lead to an
evolving wet pattern, which could become more widespread by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak stable southeast flow will prevail this morning and allow
for land breezes with isolated light showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected. Scattered thin cirrus clouds will continue to
overspread the region from the west.

By late this morning, sea breezes will develop and bring isolated
showers to mainly interior regions.

No AIRMETs anticipated overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will hold over the western islands
today, while light to moderate east-southeasterly trades prevail
over the eastern end of the state. A storm system to the distant
northwest, will strengthen winds and shift them around to the
southeast and south Monday through Tuesday. Localized terrain
enhancement around the Big Island could result in advisory level
winds during this time. The winds will gradually ease Wednesday
and Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest, with
moderate to fresh northeast trades filling in behind the front for
the end of the week.

A series of small overlapping north-northeast swells will keep
some surf in place along exposed north and east facing shores
through midweek. A small west-northwest swell will bring some
small surf to exposed north and west facing Tuesday through
Thursday. A more significant north-northwest swell appears to
arrive late in the week, potentially bringing warning level surf
to north and west facing shores next weekend.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up today, then return
back to seasonable levels Monday through late next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Jelsema